Are trans women more likely to be sex offenders compared to non-transgender women?
If we compare cisgender (non-trans) female sex offenders with transgender female sex offenders, would the data show that trans women are more dangerous that cis women?
Rachel Saunders has conducted a systematic review of UK sex offender statistics as part of her PhD.
She found that police records only track victim sex rather than offender demographics. Similarly, UK courts do not publicly disclose data on defendants’ gender, making it difficult to assess the rates of female-perpetrated sexual offenses.
Citing studies and Freedom of Information requests, Saunders estimates that women may commit between 5–20% of all sex offenses in the UK, though exact figures remain elusive.
Forensic psychologist Dr Joe Sullivan has suggested the number of women sexually abusing children is much higher than conviction rates would suggest. Male teenage victims may for instance be reluctant to come forward because of a fear that their experience will not be viewed as abuse. Moreover, people are less likely to believe that women can commit sexual offenses, as this does not fit with the gender stereotypes.
It is clear that cis women are responsible for much more sexual abuse than trans women, but then again there are more cis women out there than trans women.
Saunders argues that the data suggest that trans women are not more likely to be sex offenders than cis women. She writes:
Cisgender women … have a ratio of 100:1 to 500:1 depending on how you wish to measure it. Already the ratio is two orders of magnitude. Thus, if one out trans woman is arrested and charged with a sexual offence in a given year she is already statistically inside the 100:1 to 500:1 ratio and it would take 100 to 500 cisgender women to ratio that.
The data itself suggest that this is within the bounds of actual cisgender female sexual offences conviction rates in the UK, so 1 trans woman per year fits a normative sexual predation pattern in the UK.
However, Saunders also warns that the data is flawed and that there in reality “is no way to know for sure what the actual ratio truly is.”
Based on the data available Sanders argues trans women who transitioned prior to their crime commit such crimes at least two orders of magnitude less than cisgender women.
So to sum up: There is no data that shows that trans women are more likely to be sex offenders than cis women.
However, anti-trans activists and journalists use individual stories to create the impression that trans women are more dangerous.
Read Saunder’s article: “Female sex offenders”
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